In reality, it is the epistemic arrogance of the author that strikes me as the point of this book. This book is hyper-interesting, very rich but also super-annoying at the same time. This might not be the final rating. This review is my first negative one and hopefully my last. Indeed, the more you know, the larger the rows of unread books. Book Summary - The Talent Code: Greatness Isn't Born. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. Thaleb proposed Mandelbrotian approach against Gaussian (to which detail i am not technically capable to comprehend). I buddy read this which was the only positive aspect. While the central idea is interesting, the way it is presented is just awful. With what impact ? • In Extremistan environments, there can be wild randomness and extreme deviations. All rights reserved. Learn how to be smarter in an uncertain world! The book is a treasure trove if you are a quizzer. We're always looking for quality used and rare books, so feel free to bring them by the shop. This book is like a nice cup of dark roasted coffee. This book is a weird mix of novel ideas, bragging, and pseudo-science. • They have a profound impact on our society/world. ", or even "That just seems flat-out wrong". The series is written by a bestselling American writer named Victoria Danann. We buy classic literature, scholarly texts, books on Virginiana and the Civil War, children's books, art books, and other subject areas, such as religion, philosophy, cooking, gardening. The Highly Sensitive: How to Stop Emotional Overload, Relieve Anxiety, and Eliminat... Millionaire Teacher: The Nine Rules of Wealth You Should Have Learned in School, Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist. extremely unpredictable events that have a massive impact. He hates the bell curve for massively misrepresent. In the author's point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics - It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. I buddy read this which was the only positive aspect. Black Swans are so disruptive partially because they often appear in scalable Extremistan scenarios. We read about a chapter a day and every time we discussed it, we would be at a loss for words. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb – eBook Details. The author judges the quality of books by their smell, I sadly bough the kindle edition, otherwise the stench would have put me off from buying it. Also, the only fields of statistics that I have ever avoided are time series (forecasting) and actuarial science (incredibly boring). And of course also the things in our ordinary life: when you look back, it is usually a succession of unexpected events that keep stuck in your memory and have shaped your life. The series is written by a bestselling American writer named Victoria Danann. Prime members enjoy Free Two-Day Shipping, Free Same-Day or One-Day Delivery to select areas, Prime Video, Prime Music, Prime Reading, and more. No Kindle device required. It sheds light on fundamental errors of thought. The book was published in multiple languages including English, consists of 401 pages and is available in Hardcover format. However, a singer in the digital age is a scalable profession since he/she can perform a song once, record and disseminate it widely. Many historical events that drastically impacted our societies and lives were actually Black Swan events. Click here to download The Black Swan summary & infographic Click here to order the book online Click here for more resources and free tips! Your recently viewed items and featured recommendations, Select the department you want to search in. This book although more academic and less friendly to read than a Malcolm Gladwell book, still promotes the same unique turn everything upside down with the way we perceive things. Black Swan, huge-impact improbable events (the success of google, attack of 9/11, invention of internet), shows that social sciences fail to predict various events (behaviors inculuded) by,and so far by merely , usingGaussian "bell curve" approach. This book analyzes so-called “Black Swans”—extremely unpredictable events that have massive impacts on human society. To see what your friends thought of this book. A massage therapist is a non-scalable profession since he/she can only serve so many clients in a day. I am, professionally, a statistician. I bought and read this book because it was critical of statisticians. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. You want to learn something useful within the same genre, pick up "Thinking, fast and slow" by Daniel Kahneman instead. Unfortunately, this second book is a complete disappointment. Yes there are ideas out there, that are beyond our current understanding. Contains a hell lot of names(philosophers, economists, mathematicians..). Do check out our full Black Swan summary for to zoom in on each of these factors. Download one of the Free Kindle apps to start reading Kindle books on your smartphone, tablet, and computer. You're listening to a sample of the Audible audio edition. Taleb`s main idea, is that we do not live in a linear world. I stopped reading this because the author is so pompous and annoying. I work at a factory where I assist engineers in better understanding how processes work and making things better. In order to navigate out of this carousel, please use your heading shortcut key to navigate to the next or previous heading. Black Swan, huge-impact improbable events (the success of google, attack of 9/11, invention of internet), shows that social sciences fail to predict various events (behaviors inculuded) by,and so far by merely , usingGaussian "bell curve" approach. The use of mathematics in social sciences overestimates what we know (observed past events)and underestimates what we don't (probable future events): too little science papers succeeded to make (near) accurate predictions; and successful inventions are almost always accidental. Generally i seek out anything controversial but this author is just a reb. Psychology, Economics, Sociology & General. He also tries to be really conversational and funny, but he isn't funny, and he keeps coming up with examples (some good, some bad) to illustrate and re-illustrate his points. Here is a typical passage: "I felt in my spine the weight of the epistemic arrogance of the human race." In The Black Swan, Taleb shares contrarian wisdom that […] I read Fooled by Randomness first then I read this one. I think it takes discipline to complete a book and thus authors deserves respect. Fast, FREE delivery, video streaming, music, and much more. Wall-banger at page 64. Is any of the readers applying anything from the book to decision making in their lives ? Then in 1697, a Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh discovered black swans in Australia, debunking this universal “truth” overnight. Thus, the outliers can make a big difference—if you add the net worth of Jeff Bezos or Bill Gates to a group of 1,000 people, it will drastically shift the average. Is it worth my time to start again? Meet the Epic and Awesome Authors of Fall's Big Fantasy Novels. The Black Swan is the 2nd book in the five-book series by Nassim Nicholas Taleb on uncertainty. Still don't know what it's saying apart from "big, unexpected things have big, unexpected consequences". . Previous page of related Sponsored Products, Random House Trade Paperbacks (May 11 2010). This book is about the absolutely unexpected, the black swan you would never suspect if you only saw white swans all your life. Besides explaining the black swan concept, it shows another point of view on the world and what we expect from the future. The Black Swan glides through deep philosophical discussions and clever humor as effortlessly as its namesake. Scalability can create vast inequalities, extremities and winner-takes-all situations. The amazing bit is that he actually uses so much of stats and science to explain his points but then goes on to discredit the very same principles. The author dismisses entire professions, e.g., philosophy professors and most academics in general, arguing that no patterns in history or the sociopolitical process are discernible. It was a perfect example of the dunning kruger effect (which is a concept that the author refers too in the book). In this book, Nassim Nicholas Taleb uses numerous examples and research studies to explain the Black Swan phenomenon and the fallacy of human predictions. You don't, however, need to read Fooled by Randomness to enjoy The Black Swan. Taleb, of course, refers to numerous historical examples of things that have come completely out of the blue: the collapse of the Soviet Union, Nine-eleven, major stock market crises and so on. I only read the first 13 pages of this book, plus the prologue, but that was enough. Mindful people should certainly read this one. The first edition of the novel was published in 2007, and was written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. • What’s the narrative fallacy and how to overcome it • Why we’re blind to nonlinearities and the implications • Why empirical evidence is flawed due to silent evidence and why we’re prone to the survivor bias. This review is my first negative one and hopefully my last. It doesn't get any easier than that! Once upon a time there was a clever young … This shopping feature will continue to load items when the Enter key is pressed. Nassim is already very well-known for his views and theories and he doesn't need more explanations. Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s treasure chest of a book and New York Times bestseller, “The Black Swan”, explores the nature of unpredictable events of huge consequence.
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