Find out more about how we use your information in our Privacy Policy and Cookie Policy. The October Quinnipiac survey of Iowa had Clinton and Trump in a virtual tie. Hear his opinion now, Democrat and Republican senators' maskless hug stirs outrage, Avlon: This is just another of the President's 20,000 lies, Melania Trump reveals Barron Trump contracted Covid-19, Obama: Trump's call for indictment was 'absurd', Feds chased suspected foreign link to Trump's 2016 campaign cash for 3 years, Trump rally billboard says 'superspreader event this way.' At this same point in 2016, Reuters Ipsos had the Wisconsin race too close to call. Errors of 5 points in state polling are uncommon enough that we can say Biden is clearly ahead and would likely win if the election were today. The Real Clear Politics polling average in 2016 Trump up by 18.5 – pretty much spot on. Also in Pennsylvania, a Quinnipiac poll had Clinton up by five percentage points in late October of 2016. But many Democrats are still traumatized by the polling missteps in 2016, which overlooked the strength of Trump’s support in battleground states. SurveyUSA had Clinton with a 10-point lead in Minnesota. That same Marquette poll now shows Joe Biden with only a 5-point lead. Or to keep it anonymous, click here. Despite her shocking defeat, the national polls largely got it right. Biden's is more than double that. We don’t have that same poll this year, but the most recent NBC News/Marist poll of the state gives Biden an 8-point edge. With the 2020 election exactly four weeks away, former Vice President Joe Biden is leading President Trump in every national poll, opening up a significant advantage in surveys taken since the first presidential debate. RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Joe Biden: Favorable/Unfavorable Twenty-four days and counting… It’s time to crunch the numbers. They're not. In fact, the same gyrations in the polls were present the last two times incumbents lost. Indeed, Biden's advantage looks most like that of Barack Obama's. What about Florida? Still, the safest bet at this point is that Biden has been ahead and will likely be ahead when all the votes are counted. President Donald Trump now leads Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden in the national popular vote by one point, according to the Sunday Express/Democracy Institute Poll released on Sunday. Remember how many outlets were predicting a landslide for Hillary Clinton in 2016? Biden is up to 16 points ahead nationally as must-win states seem safe, but experts say polls don’t reflect what will happen when votes are counted Chris McGreal As … Now, Emerson has Biden winning Michigan by 10. Clinton lost those 29 electoral votes by about one percentage point. What Obama had that Biden doesn't have, however, was an edge in the electoral college relative to the popular vote. Jimmy Carter's advantage evaporated during the early months of 1980, but he was able to close a double-digit deficit to Ronald Reagan in the late summer of that year. Email us. Updated 6:25 AM ET, Mon September 7, 2020. As Peggy Noonan wrote for the Wall Street Journal: “This is also the week that journalists and politicos in Washington began wondering about something they never expected to be thinking about this year. The poll found that 46 percent of likely voters nationwide support Trump … They are wondering if November 3rd won’t be a win for Joe Biden but a blowout, a landslide in a polarized country that doesn’t produce landslides anymore.”. Gerald Ford went from easily winning in 1976 to being down by a wide margin and ultimately losing by 2 points. These polls from October of 2016 had Clinton up by the following margins: And now those recent polls show Biden up by the following margins: Even Rasmussen research, which many regard as right-leaning, showed Clinton ahead by 4 in 2016. Yes, that sounds a lot like 2016, but the margins by which Biden leads Trump are, in some instances, larger than by which Clinton led Trump 4 years ago. For Biden. He is also the host of CNN’s Smerconish, which airs Saturdays at 9 a.m. Have a tip we should know? Today, that same poll shows Biden up by a much wider margin of 13 percentage points. Bottom line: Both the national and state polls are telling a similar story. Yahoo is part of Verizon Media. And finally, Missouri. Have a tip or story idea? And given that there is still time for Biden's national lead to shrink to 6 points or even 5 points, he can't take this election to the bank by any stretch. At this exact week in 2016, Clinton led by 11 percentage points in an EPIC-MRA poll. Currently, Quinnipiac has Biden up by 11 in Florida. Bill Clinton. Biden's 10 point and 6 point advantages are the exact same they were when CBS News/YouGov, The polls are reflective of a race that barely budges even after two conventions, protests and unrest in some cities over police brutality and as the nation navigates, Biden holds about an average 7 point advantage over Trump in polls taken since the beginning of the year. • CNN poll results released Tuesday showed Biden with a 16-point lead over Trump (57 percent to 41 percent) among likely voters. That is, the range in the polls in the average election has been closer to 14 to 16 points, depending on how you calculate the polling average. That's a remarkably narrow range. Monmouth currently has Biden up 12 in Pennsylvania. Biden has maintained leads not just nationally, but in the, Speaking of the Clinton campaign, Biden has never once fallen behind nationally. ), Graham says 'good old days' segregation comment was sarcasm, Analysis: Trump's law and order campaign isn't working, These maps show how 2020 could come down to 1 electoral vote. Poll of the week: A new Monmouth University poll finds that former Vice President Joe Biden holds a 51% to 44% lead over President Donald Trump among likely voters. So, let’s compare what the state polls said in 2016 – and what they’re saying now. Now they have Biden up nationally by 12 percentage points. How Biden's and Trump's digital campaigns get in your head, WaPo: WH was warned Giuliani was target of Russian misinformation, Brianna Keilar rolls the tape on Trump's debate excuses, Gupta on Christie statement: I wish he'd said it before, 'Manipulated by Trump': Carl Bernstein on NBC town hall, 'Kisses dictators' butts': Republican senator lambasts Trump in leaked call, Florida seniors frustrated over Trump's handling of Covid-19, Two test positive for Covid-19 in Harris' campaign orbit, Democratic senator voted to confirm Barrett to appeals court. At this same point in 2016, Reuters Ipsos had the Wisconsin race too close to call. Hillary Clinton lost Wisconsin by less than one percentage point. That is, Biden's lead in the state that would provide him with the 270 electoral votes is closer to 5 points than 8 points. New CBS News/YouGov polls reveal that former Vice President Joe Biden maintains his grip on the 2020 race for president. You can change your choices at any time by visiting Your Privacy Controls. But let’s catch our collective breath for a moment. But a Marquette University Law School poll had Clinton up by seven percentage points in October of 2016. This story originally appeared on Smerconish.com. And after days of unparalleled chaos surrounding the White House there’s a feeling this thing is getting away from the president. Information about your device and internet connection, including your IP address, Browsing and search activity while using Verizon Media websites and apps. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has garnered a sixteen-point lead over President Donald Trump among likely voters in a new nationwide poll, … Biden's lead in the average has never gotten below 4 or 5 points or above 10 points. Poll: Donald Trump Now Leads Joe Biden in National Popular Vote 6,873 AP Photo, File. At the end of the 2016 cycle, the Real Clear Politics average had Clinton winning the popular vote by 3.2 percentage points, and she did win the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points. Monmouth at this time in 2016 gave Clinton at 10 point lead in the Commonwealth. In 2016, Emerson had Clinton over Trump in Michigan by 7. To enable Verizon Media and our partners to process your personal data select 'I agree', or select 'Manage settings' for more information and to manage your choices. That same poll in early October of 2020 also has Biden up by 7. It’s one of Joe Biden holding a comfortable lead with just about three weeks until the final day of voting. Clinton's edge at this point in 2016 was only about 3 points. Clinton edged out Trump in Minnesota by about one percentage point. The difference, of course, is that many polls didn't actually have Obama ahead nationally because his average lead was so narrow. And other states play an essential role in the big picture: Trump won the state of Iowa by about nine percentage points in 2016. There’s not a single poll I can point to either nationally or in a battleground state that reads differently. A look at the previous 19 elections since 1940 reveals that the average range has been double that from January of the election year through early September of the same year. Now let’s look at Michigan – another state Hillary Clinton lost by less than one percent. That same Marquette poll now shows Joe Biden with only a 5-point lead. (Literally. We and our partners will store and/or access information on your device through the use of cookies and similar technologies, to display personalised ads and content, for ad and content measurement, audience insights and product development. The 2020 Quinnipiac has Biden leading by 5. Michael Patrick Leahy 4 Oct 2020. Poll after poll shows Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden with a commanding lead over President Donald Trump, both nationally and in key states. (CNN)New CBS News/YouGov polls reveal that former Vice President Joe Biden maintains his grip on the 2020 race for president. This year, despite at least as many unforeseen events as the 1980 campaign, has featured none of that wild movement. White House Was Warned Last Year That Russian Intelligence Was Seeking to Manipulate Rudy Giuliani With Election Misinformation on Bidens, Trump Defends Promoting Conspiracy That Navy SEALs Didn’t Kill Bin Laden: ‘That Was an Opinion’, WATCH: Paulette, Clinton Voter at Town Hall, Gushes Over Trump’s ‘Very Nice Smile’, LISTEN: GOP Sen. Ben Sasse Absolutely Torches Trump on Call With Voters, Says He ‘Kisses Dictators’ Butts’ and Has ‘Flirted with White Supremacists’, BREAKING: C-SPAN Suspends Political Director Steve Scully For Admitting to Lying About Twitter Hack, winning the popular vote by 3.2 percentage points, This story originally appeared on Smerconish.com, Mitt Romney Drops Statement on Trump-Biden Election, Gets Dragged For Equating President With Keith Olbermann, WATCH: Amy Coney Barrett Fails to Recite Five Freedoms Guaranteed by the First Amendment of the Constitution, Lindsey Graham Asks Amy Coney Barrett About a Return to the ‘Good Old Days of Segregation’, Trump Appeals to Suburban Women at PA Rally: ‘Will You Please Like Me?
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