By 2040, average summer temperature for the UK is expected to rise by between 0.5 and 2°C, depending on region. The average of three observing stations in Hertfordshire, Worcestershire and Lancashire, has been monitored instrumentally since 1772, and long term changes in it are representative of those across most of the UK (1). ), Murphy et al. Unfortunately, just as with storm tracks, model projections do not give a clear picture of changes to anticyclones. The highest listed English place is the north west county of Westmorland in at 9. Increases in mean annual temperature, relative to 1961-1990, range from 0.3 to 1.1°C by the 2020s and 0.5 to 2.6°C by the 2050s (12). Model predictions for regions upstream of the towns of Lewes and Shrewsbury and the city of York suggest that it is likely that return periods of extreme 30-day rainfall will have reduced between pre-industrial times and the present. Most of the warming is expected to take place in summer although winters are also expected to be significantly warmer (6). It is estimated, that the magnitude of extreme rainfall has increased two-fold over parts of the UK since the 1960s (8, see als 28). For many catchments, the return periods of the rainfall which produced these floods have been estimated to be in excess of 200 years (15). (2007); Fealy and Sweeney (2008), both in: Mullan et al. (2018). Wales Weather, climate and geography Weather and climate Best time to visit. (2016), Osborn and Hulme (2002), in: De Leeuw et al. Eight of the ten warmest years recorded have been since 1990 with 2006 being the warmest year on record (3). Warming in the winter will be greater in the night than during the day; the opposite holds for the summer. Output from three GCMs and two IPCC emissions scenarios (A2 and B2) have been used to downscale daily maximum and minimum temperatures to nine climatological stations across Northern Ireland (21). (2012, 2014), both in: Chan et al. Relative to the 1930s, annual precipitation increased slightly (+ 3%) over the period 1931 to 1999, even though both winter (–3%) and summer (–2%) showed slight declines. The study focused on 5-day means of rainfall since 5-day means were considered to be a better proxy for flood risk than daily means (28). Seasonal-mean precipitation is highly variable, but appears to have decreased in summer and increased in winter, although with little change in the latter over the last 50 yr (1). A future simulation of summer precipitation for the future period 2031 - 2036 with a detailed weather model and a high-end scenario of climate change (RCP8.5) suggests that, compared with the period 1990 - 1995, the summers will possibly be drier, with longer dry spells, shorter wet spells and heavier precipitation, especially in the southeast of the UK. It is likely, therefore, that global man-made emissions of greenhouse gases have played a significant role in the recent warming of the UK (1). The hot summer was largely a consequence of the atmospheric circulation anomalies and elevated sea-surface temperature in the proximity of the United Kingdom, but these alone are insufficient to fully explain the magnitude of the observed temperature anomalies for the season overall. These differences stem from the culture, dress, religion, philosophy, sports, arts and languages.When we define the term East, it does not necessarily mean the direction in which the sunrises, but also the eastern hemisphere that includes a number of counties such as India, China, Japan, etc. Manchester comes in at 15 behind Belfast and, surprisingly, Leeds. For these scenarios summer temperature may increase between 2-3⁰C and up to 5⁰C. No significant trends of changes in rainfall intensity in England and Wales have been found between 1931 and 2014 (30). By 2050s an extreme summer may be up to 3.7ºC warmer than the average for the baseline 1961-1990 (2). In the east, annual average rainfall amounts are 670 mm at Edinburgh and 610 mm at London, with parts of East Anglia having totals down to 500 mm. Future changes in anticyclonic weather are equally unclear. Spring precipitation changes little. Due to climate change, a downward trend in the total number of damaging hailstorms during the 21st century was projected, from a single (regional) model simulation of future climate (the A1B medium emissions scenario) (25). The summer of 1995 was about 50 per cent below normal. Wales. ; Northern Ireland (also known as Ulster) ; Numerous smaller islands including the Isle of Wight, Anglesey, and the Scilly, Orkney, Shetland, and Hebridean archipelagos. The lowland area is broken up by sandstone and limestone hills, long valleys and basins such as the Wash on the east coast. Winters will be wetter, with the average winter 14% wetter and the wettest winter 33% wetter than the baseline average (17). This is particularly evident in Scotland. There is no compelling evidence that the frequency, duration or intensity of those affecting the UK will change markedly either way, although neither can it be ruled out (1). Again this agrees with previous results for the southern UK domain, although the projected intensification of summer precipitation is larger for the northern than for the southern UK (41). Around 2.5 million have now been sold worldwide. ‘Dry’ summers that presently occur just once-a-decade (e.g. These are transformed from being as light as a pillowcase to being more effective than traditional sandbags in just three minutes and are ideal at soaking up spills as well as stopping any floodwater. To start with, there's the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The mercury has been known to dip to -10°C (14°F), but those kind of temperatures are rare. Likewise, by the 2050s, about half of all winters may be as mild as the one of 1988/89, the mildest recorded in Wales this century with mean temperature 2.4ºC above the 1961-1990 average (for the UKCIP98 medium-high emissionsscenario). There have also been changes to the proportion of winter rainfall coming from heavy precipitation events: in winter all regions of the UK have experienced an increase over the past 45 yr; in summer all regions except NE England and N Scotland have experienced decreases (1). (2009), in: Charlton and Arnell (2014), Webb et al. Temperatures have been known on occasion to nudge 30°C (86°F), sometimes higher, but the threat of rain is ever present - pack waterproofs as well as the sunscreen. In addition the number of very cold days in winter decreases. However, because the length of data in each case is relatively short, research to date has not attributed these changes to specific causes (1). Annual precipitation over Wales increases in all four UKCIP98 scenarios, by between 3 and 5% by the 2050s. Are these observed extreme events just bad luck or is heavy rainfall in summer, especially in July, something we have reasons to expect in the future and should begin adapting to in terms of infrastructure planning? Also in the winter, precipitation intensities are projected to increase. The summer heat wave experienced in 2003 is likely to become a normal event by the 2040s and considered cool by the 2060s (11). In winter, minimum temperatures rise more rapidly than maximum temperatures which reduces the diurnal temperature range. East of England. According to the UKCP09 scenarios, the biggest changes in precipitation amounts in winter, with increases up to +33% (+9% to +70%) in the 2080s compared with 1961–1990, are seen along the western side of the UK. Warming will be greater in summer and autumn than in winter and spring (13). More winter rain days and longer wet-spells have occurred since the 1960s. Summer precipitation has fallen by up to 15% since the early 1900s, with the summer of 1976 being the driest (about 60% below normal). In general, when it rains, it rains harder (38,39). Probabilistic projections of changes in wind speed cannot yet be provided. Projections of future change (measured relative to the 1960-1991 baseline) for Northern Ireland if high emissions continue are a change in winter mean precipitation very likely to be between -3 to +10% by 2020s, 2 to 19% by 2050s and +6 to +34% by 2080s, and a change in summer mean precipitation very likely to be between -15 to +10% by 2020s, -28 to +4% by 2050s and -39 to +4% by 2080s (16). On an annual basis an overall precipitation reduction of 0-10% is projected (14). From 1901 to 1998, annual precipitation in Wales has increased only very slightly (+3%) over this period. The average annual mean temperature in Birmingham is expected to increase by between 0.5⁰C and 1.5⁰C by the 2020s and between 1.0⁰C and 2.5⁰C by the 2050s with respect to the 1961–1990. (2016), Kendon et al. This has been studied by modeling the historic situation and a situation of the “world that might have been” without anthropogenic forcing of climate change (28). By 2100, average summer temperature for the UK is expected to rise by between 1 and 6°C, depending on region and emissions scenario (3). Scotland. The summer of 2018 (June, July, August) in the United Kingdom
was the joint hottest on record for mean temperature in a national series dating from 1884. The Met Office Hadley Centre regional climate model projects decreases in winter mean wind speed of a few percent over the UK (1). Winter precipitation increases over Wales by between 7 and 15% by the 2050s. The present-day likelihood of a summer temperature anomaly at or above that of 2018 is approximately 11–12%, which is a factor of 30 higher than estimated for a world without man-made greenhouse gas emissions. In 2007, heavy flooding in England and Wales followed very high daily and 5-day totals of rainfall, resulting in economic losses of approximately £3 billion (29). East Midlands. From 1901 to 1999, annual mean CET temperatures showed a warming of +0.6°C over this period. According to the UKCP09 scenarios, the biggest changes in precipitation amounts in summer, down to about –40% (–65% to –6%) in the 2080s compared with 1961–1990, are seen in parts of the far south of England (24). For England, for instance, annual warming of between 0.5 and 1.5°C has been reported by the 2020s, and between 0.5 and 3.0°C by the 2050s (4).
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